Expected DA from January 2014

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AICPI (IW) for the month of August 2013 – Expected DA from January 2014

October 1, 2013 by admin Leave a Comment

AICPI (IW) for the month of August 2013 – Expected DA from January 2014 is 100% or 101% – Allowances that are linked with DA would increase by 25%

AICPI-IW for the month of August 2013 has been released by Ministry of Labour recently. A press release has been issued by the Labour Bureau yesterday to the extent that the CPI (IW) Base Year 2001=100 raised from 235 to 237 in the end of August 2013.
The following table provides AICPI (IW) for the period from January 2013 to August 2013. These indicators together with AICPI (IW) for the months from September 2013 to December 20113 will be used to determine Dearness Allowance for Central Government Employees with effect from January 2014
How to calculate DA from All India Consumer Price Index? Click here to know.

Month	Actual AICPI-IW	Expected AICPI (IW) from Sep-2013 to Dec-2013Scenario I	Expected AICPI (IW) from Sep-2013 to Dec-2013Scenario II	Expected AICPI (IW) from Sep-2013 to Dec-2013Scenario III
Jan 2013	221
Feb 2013	223
Mar 2013	224
Apr 2013	226
May 2013	228
Jun 2013	231
July 2013	235
Aug 2013	237
Sep 2013	Yet to be released	237	238	239
Oct 2013	Yet to be released	237	239	241
Nov 2013	Yet to be released	237	240	243
Dec 2013	Yet to be released	237	241	245
Estimated DA from January 2014		99%	100%	101%

Scenario -1

If we have no inflationary trend in commodities that are given weightage then CPI (IW) from September 2013 to December 2013 would remain at 237.  This is almost unlikely considering the past trend in CPI (IW). However, happening of this scenario would provide 9% DA increase from the existing 90% DA and Central Government Employees and Pensioners would be eligible for DA of 99% from January 2014.

Scenario -2

If we assume that Inflationary Trend in essential Commodities will be moderate and we have only one point increase in CPI (IW) , then Consumer Price Index (2001=100) from September 2013 to December 2013 will be 238, 239, 240,241 respectively. In that case DA for Central Government Employees and Pensioners will be fixed at 100% from January 2014.

Scenario -3

In this case, if we assume that All India CPI (IW) from September 2013 to December 2013 increases at the rate of 2 per month similar to its past trend , then Central Government Employees and pensioners would be entitled for Dearness Allowance of 101% from January 2014.

So, it is predicted that possibility of Scenario 2 or Scenario 3 coming true is more. In such case, Central Government Employees and Pensioners would get additional DA of either 10% or 11% from January 2014.